IMD: Be prepared for heavy rain this year, monsoon will be better in India, know the reason

By Priyanka Tiwari February 12, 2024 7:59 AM IST

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Monsoon expected to be better this year

Meteorologists have predicted that last year in 2023, the heat was at its peak and the rainfall had also reduced. After a hot weather year last year, ‘El Nino’ ​​conditions will end by June this year, which has increased the chances of good monsoon rains this time. Several weather agencies announced last week that ‘El Nino’, which has been affecting weather around the world, has started to weaken and is likely to turn into ‘La Nina’ conditions by August. In such a situation, there is a possibility of better rainfall in India during monsoon this year. Let us tell you that El Nilo is the process of warming of the water of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

There will be good rain this year: IMD

Indian meteorologists have said that the formation of ‘La Nina’ conditions from June-August may mean that this year’s monsoon rains will be better than last year. Former Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Madhavan Rajeevan has said that there is a good possibility of ‘La Nina’ situation by June-July, which can lead to good rainfall. He said, “Even if El Nino turns into neutral conditions, this year’s monsoon will be better than last year.” Let us tell you that about 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall comes from the south-west monsoon, which Important for the agricultural sector.

For this reason scientists are expressing hope

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had said that there is a 79 percent chance that ‘El Nino’ ​​will turn ‘ENSO-neutral’ by April-June and a 55 percent chance of ‘La Nina’ developing in June-August. Percentage probability. Along with this, the Copernicus Climate Change Service of the European Union has confirmed that ‘El Nino’ ​​has now started weakening.

“Right now, we can’t say anything with certainty,” said D Shivanand Pai, senior scientist at the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Some models indicate La Nina, while others indicate ENSO-neutral conditions. However, all models are indicating the end of El Nino.

There are chances of heavy rain this year

NOAA said there has been a trend for La Nina to occur after a strong El Nino has weakened. Pai said that assuming that El Nino conditions will continue till the first half of 2024 i.e. May June. At the same time, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) had predicted that this year will be hotter than 2023, on this Pai said, “If La Nina develops then the current year will not be hotter than 2023.” ‘

At the same time, Indian climate scientist Roxy Mathew Cole said that the latest forecasts are indicating a sudden change in La Nina by June, which may result in timely and good monsoon rains in India this year.

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